BNP Paribas said China's demand for oil and chemical products has been weak in the year so far as a result of contracting manufacturing activity and tighter liquidity. For the oil production sector, the French investment bank cut its 2014-2015 earnings estimates by 2%-13% to reflect lower crude prices, higher production costs and weaker downstream earnings. For the oil services sector, it cut its 2014-2015 earnings estimates by 1%-18% to reflect order delays and new rig startups.
China's refined oil product surplus will likely persist in 2014 due to slower economic growth, new capacity expansion, and higher natural gas consumption in industrial and vehicle markets, HSBC predicted, adding that state-owned refiners will boost exports as domestic balance tilts toward oversupply.
Capital expenditure by PetroChina (NYSE: PTR, HKG: 0857, SHA: 601857) and Sinopec (NYSE: SNP, HKG: 0386, SHA: 600028), China's oil duopolies, are expected to be lowered this year because upstream segments may shed unprofitable projects while downstream segments may focus more on cost-effective brownfield investments, said UBS.
China will give permission to privately-owned companies to engage in oil and gas exploitation aimed at tackling industry monopoly, the 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter. At present, companies in China have to deal with the three oil giants to import crude oil or purchase oil and gas.
Methanol prices in eastern China have fallen 13% year to date and 27% from the December 2013 peak. In addition to reasonable coal prices and weak demand, UBS said this was because domestic gas-based methanol producers were deprived of feedstock during the winter gas shortage and Asian regional suppliers returned from unexpected outages in the winter.
China has made significant breakthroughs in the exploration and development of shale gas, with the nation's oil duopolies closing to complete initial stage development of shale gas blocks in Sichuan and preparing for commercial operation, the Securities Times reported. It is estimated that Sichuan has 27.5 trillion cubic meters of shale gas reserves including 4.42 trillion cubic meters of recoverable resources, accounting for 21% and 18% respectively of China's total.